In terms of MotoGP, I think Maverick Vinales and Alexi Espargaro will be closer to race wins due to Aprilia picking up a satellite team allowing for more data collection and setup testing. Then considering Yamaha vs Ducatti, obviously Ducatti have something like 8 bikes on the grid allowing for way more data collection but the new tyre pressure sensors might reveal they were just making up corner speed due to loopholes, then they go back to only being good on the straights.
Overall I'd say Quartararo makes much less mistakes than Bagnaia because you can visually see at the end of 2022 Quartarao is pushing his bike so hard it's twitching around when he gets into the corners causing him to make mistakes, while Bagnaia just seems to crash out breaking into corners while the bike looks perfectly stable. Then Bastianini will probably be taking points from Bagnaia on tracks Ducatti are strong at, while Quartarao seems to make his bike work on tracks Yamaha should be behind on, so my money is on Quartarao. I think he was just unlucky in 2022 and his bike wasn't great. Cal Crutchlow kept saying the setup was all wrong and the tyre pressures weren't right, and he's been test rider there forever.
Also watch out for Alex Marquez on the Ducatti because I think LCR Honda was really letting him down.